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The Loss Register

24/03/2009

Christopher Munro and Scott Vincent

THE INTERNATIONAL UNION OF MARINE INSURANCE (IUMI) met in Miami this week for its spring meeting, where it announced its preliminary loss estimates for 2008. For the calendar year, initial figures show the total loss figure to be 74, eight fewer than the same figure for 2007.

However, Cedric Charpentier, IUMI’s facts and figures chairman, who is also chief underwriting officer for cargo at Axa Corporate Solutions, warned: “We might expect an ultimate figure of around 95 if we apply the normal deterioration factor because of late reporting.”

So far in 2008, the figure for tonnage lost stands at 372,000 gt, a drop of 22% on the figure that was posted in 2007. According to IUMI, when taking into account the trend of late reporting, the total for 2008 would be about 470,000 gt, which would equate to the second-best year in the period of 1980-2008.

After the exceptional 975 serious losses that occurred in 2007, IUMI noted that 2008 looked like showing an improvement. At present, 748 serious losses have been reported – a decrease of 18% on the figure for 2008. Charpentier remarked that a final figure of 800 could be expected and although it represents a high level compared with losses before 2007, when fleet growth is taken into consideration, the figure can be considered comparable to 2005 and 2006.

Meanwhile, in Australia there has been no further movement of the loss total for the recent Victoria bushfires. According to the Insurance Council of Australia, the insured loss still stands at A$1.12bn ($780.9m). However, it looks as though a large number of uninsured homeowners will benefit from up to A$50,000 each as further details of the distribution of federal aid emerges.

The chairman of the appeal fund, John Landy, has said A$130m in donated funds will benefit around 1,800 owner-occupied properties and 400 rented homes.

The issue of the payouts to uninsured homeowners has re-opened the debate that after-the-event aid can effectively punish those who bought insurance, with those who did not take out cover potentially receiving larger payouts.

In the US, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Ad­ministration last week warned of the potential for record-breaking flooding in parts of the US, where it has created a new category – “high risk” – to differentiate from the existing “above average” category for flooding potential.

US property/casualty insurer Hanover Insurance Group has given an indication of the impact it is likely to face from this year’s winter weather, saying recent winter storms will reduce its first-quarter income by $30m to $35m when it reports its results on May 8.

The impact of hurricane Ike has also continued to be felt during recent results announcements. In the past week, the Switzerland-based Glacier Group reported a 62% decline in net profit after it was hit by high catastrophe losses, including from Ike, where gross losses increased from the previous estimate of $65m to $100m.

At Paris Re, the combined ratio rose to 102.7% from 91.1% in 2007. Hurricanes Gustav and Ike, windstorm Emma and hailstorm Hilal had a combined $155.8m impact, with Gustav contributing $130m of this.

And Swiss Re’s latest sigma report warned that insurers paid out $52.5bn last year for property claims as a result of catastrophes in 2008, with economic costs reaching $269bn and nearly a quarter of a million people losing their lives.