News detail

Road to Copenhagen

18/03/2009

Scott Vincent

THE INTERNATIONAL Association of Research Universities’ Climate Congress in Copenhagen last week attracted widespread media attention as scientists revealed their latest research into climate-related issues. The news from scientists was mostly not good: professor Katherine Richardson, chairman of the scientific steering committee at the University of Copenhagen, described the 2007 Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report as one of the most important scientific reports ever released but warned the science has moved on.

With some of the data used in the IPCC report a couple of years old at the time of its release, Richardson warned that some of the science used was now four or five years old. The advancements in scientific research made during the intervening period are producing results that mostly cluster at the worst end of the previous IPCC predictions. The presentation of research which suggested that sea-level rise will be greater than anticipated also gathered significant attention in the wider world, with scientists presenting studies that suggested the one metre sea-level rise barrier may be beaten by 2100.

The conference culminated with a presentation to Denmark’s prime minister, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, which has been highlighted by some as symbolic for the process now being handed over to the political world. Rasmussen was presented with six key messages. First, on climate trends, he was warned that recent observations confirm that, given high rates of observed emissions, the worst-case IPCC scenarios are being realised. For a number of key parameters, scientists now say the climate is already moving beyond the patterns of natural variability within which our society and economy have developed and thrived.

The second related to social disruption: recent observations show that societies are highly vulnerable to even modest levels of climate change, with poor nations and communities particularly at risk.

The third was the need for a long-term strategy. The scientists said rapid, sustained and effective mitigation based on co-ordinated global and regional action is required to avoid “dangerous climate change”.

The fourth was that climate change is having and will have strongly differential effects on people within and between countries and regions, on this generation and future generations and on human societies and the natural world. The scientists said an effective, well-funded adaptation safety net is required for those least capable to cope with climate-change impacts and a common but differentiated mitigation strategy is needed to protect the poor and most vulnerable.

“Inaction is inexcusable” was the fifth key message. The congress told Rasmussen that while many tools and approaches – economic, technological, behavioural, management – exist to deal with climate change, they need to be vigorously and widely implemented to achieve the societal transformation required to decarbonise economies.

The final message was that to achieve the societal transformation required to meet the challenge, we must overcome significant constraints and seize critical opportunities. These include reducing in­ertia in social and economic systems; building on a growing public desire for governments to act on climate change; removing implicit and explicit subsidies; reducing the influence of vested interests that increase emissions and reduce resilience; enabling the shifts from ineffective governance and weak institutions to innovative leadership in government, the private sector and civil society; and engaging society in the transition to norms and practices that foster sustainability.